UPDATE: The first documented Crumbl Cookies location closing was the San Luis Obispo store on December 4th, 2023. Find all store closings here.
It is crazy to think that just two (2) short years ago there was a fervor and excitement around the new cookie flavor releases every Sunday evening. Diehard fans were willing to drive several hours for their cookies and Grand Openings often created 20,000-25,000 cookies sold in a single weekend. Those days are gone in most areas of the United States. If a Crumbl has a Grand Opening within a 30 minute drive of another Crumbl, they are oftentimes selling less than 2500 cookies over the Grand Opening weekend. What is more concerning is the fact that Google Search Trends are down significantly when compared to years prior.
In 2021 and 2022 Crumbl saw a huge increase in search traffic starting in February and continuing all the way through the summer into August and September. By October and November the search trends started to fall as Crumbl was deemed a “Summer Treat” and comparable to an Ice Cream shoppe or a sugar rush after a day in the sun. Here are some comparisons over the last two (2) years from Google Trends:
- January 2021 – 11
- February 2021 – 16
- March 2021 – 17 (TikTok Explosion)
- April 2021 – 28
- May 2021 – 42
- June 2021 – 45
- July 2021 – 50
- August 2021 – 48
- September 2021 – 38
- October 2021 – 34
- November 2021 – 33
- December 2021 – 37
- January 2022 – 40
- February 2022 – 52
- March 2022 – 59
- April 2022 – 67
- May 2022 – 72
- June 2022 – 80
- July 2022 – 93
- August 2022 – 100
- September 2022 – 98
- October 2022 – 89
- November 2022 – 67
- December 2022 – 72
- January 2023 – 75
- February 2023 – 86
- March 2023 – 78
- April 2023 – 76
- May 2023 – 73
- June 2023 – 74
- July 2023 – 77
- August 2023 – 66
- September 2023 – 59
- October 2023 – 59
- November 2023 – 50
In 2021, from February through June searches increased 200% and in 2022 from February through June searches increased 66%. In 2023, searches are not up, they are down, and significantly. From February through June searches for Crumbl were down 30.5%. This is an alarming stat for those that are used to seeing Crumbl sales not only increase, but sky rocket during the summer months. Another major concern is the fact that many more stores are open which should cause search traffic to increase; the opposite is happening.
So, is the fade over? Are people getting tired of the same types of cookies rotating over and over. When looking at the search trends for “Crumbl Flavors” the stats are even worse. There is no longer that excitement or fervor for the new flavors. Has Crumbl opened too many stores too close together? Are the flavors basically the same thing with Peanut Butter, some type of cake and cream cheese frosting?
One thing is for certain, store owners, store managers and management of Crumbl stores are scratching their heads each week when they see the numbers from last year and realize they are down 30%, 40% and sometimes even 50%. How do you staff a store that is expected to sell 7500 cookies in a week and it only sells 2600 cookies? This is very worrisome for those that have sunk their entire life savings into owning a bakery only to find out the bakery grew too fast and now some stores aren’t profitable.
It does not help that certain cities now have 10 or more Crumbl Cookies locations. Many businesses have been able to walk the tight rope of keeping demand higher than supply. That is not what is happening with Crumbl Cookies in the summer and fall of 2023. In past summers, there was a demand that was significantly higher than supply. Especially with popular cookies like the Chocolate Mallow Sandwich (Oreo).
For Crumbl to get back on track and see search volume increase, they are going to have to do something different. Having a slightly different brownie or peanut butter cookie every week is not going to do it. Their answer is Savory Hand Pies or Cinnamon Squares?